How feasible is the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants as stated by President Donald Trump?

Hom Lamsal

After Donald Trump was elected as the new president, fear of deportation increased among undocumented immigrants living illegally in the U.S. There is widespread concern about the possibility of mass deportation under the Trump administration’s plans. Adding to the anxiety, there are reports that President Trump is preparing to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to enforce immigration measures. To lead this effort, he has appointed Tom Homan, who is known for his tough stance on immigration.

Research and reports from various stakeholders indicate that large-scale mass deportation is practically impossible. While estimates differ slightly, it is believed that there are about 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. According to a study conducted by the American Immigration Council, deporting all these undocumented immigrants would cost approximately $315 billion. The study highlights that deportation costs, which include detaining and processing individuals and transportation by bus or plane, would amount to $1,815 per person. Moreover, there isn’t sufficient detention capacity in the U.S. to house all these individuals. Even if all local, state, and federal detention facilities were emptied, they would only have a combined capacity of about 1.9 million people.

The study further suggests that if undocumented immigrants were given the option to leave voluntarily, around 20% of them might do so on their own. If the government were to deport 1 million undocumented immigrants per year, it would take 11 years and cost approximately $22 billion annually. Additionally, the process would require hiring thousands of new government employees and law enforcement officers — a task that has been deemed nearly impossible given the current hiring pace of U.S. enforcement agencies.

If 1 million people are to be deported annually, the U.S. government would need to recruit around 30,000 new immigration enforcement agents and staff each year, making it one of the largest law enforcement agencies in the country. Given the logistical, financial, and human resource challenges, it is unlikely that mass deportation would be feasible.

Impact on the U.S. Economy and Labor Market

Mass deportation would severely impact key industries in the U.S. that rely heavily on undocumented workers. The construction and agricultural sectors, for instance, employ a significant share of undocumented workers. According to reports, at least one in eight workers in these sectors is undocumented. If deportations were carried out on a mass scale, labor shortages would be felt in several key roles. For example:

• Over 30% of plasterers, roofers, and painters in the construction industry are undocumented workers.
• Approximately 28% of graders and sorters in agricultural production are undocumented.
• One in four housekeeping cleaners (25%) in the U.S. hospitality sector is undocumented.

The absence of these workers would cause significant disruptions in these industries, resulting in labor shortages and increased operational costs.

Loss of Revenue from Undocumented Entrepreneurs

It is estimated that around 1 million undocumented immigrants are entrepreneurs running their own businesses. In 2022 alone, businesses owned by undocumented immigrants generated a total revenue of $27 billion. Deporting these individuals would not only reduce the number of jobs but would also result in significant losses in economic productivity and revenue.

Impact on Government Revenue and Tax Contributions

Undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to state, local, and federal taxes. In 2022, these undocumented families paid an estimated $8 billion in federal taxes and $3 billion in state and local taxes. Deporting them would result in a loss of billions in tax revenue, further straining government budgets.

Undocumented immigrants also contribute to Social Security and Medicare through payroll taxes, despite being ineligible to benefit from these programs. In 2022, undocumented immigrants paid $22.6 billion into Social Security and $5.7 billion into Medicare. These payments help stabilize the programs, especially as the U.S. population ages. If these contributions were to stop, Social Security and Medicare would face significant financial challenges.

Social and Humanitarian Impacts

Mass deportation would affect an estimated 4 million mixed-status families, separating U.S. citizens from their undocumented family members. This would impact approximately 8.5 million American citizens, of which 5.1 million are children. Deportations would cause an average family income reduction of 62.7%, putting many American children at risk of poverty.

Impact on U.S. GDP

If mass deportation were carried out, it would reduce the U.S. GDP by 4.2% to 6.8%, which amounts to a loss of $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion. For context, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the U.S. GDP shrank by 4.3%. Deportations on this scale would have a comparable — if not greater — impact on the U.S. economy.

State-Specific Impacts

If Trump’s proposed deportation policy were implemented, states like California, Texas, and Florida would be most affected. These three states account for 47.2% of the undocumented immigrant population, and roughly 1 in every 20 residents in these states is an undocumented immigrant.

During the Great Depression of the 1930s, approximately 355,000 to 2 million Mexicans and Mexican-Americans were forcibly deported or repatriated to Mexico. Many of those affected were American citizens, with some estimates indicating that 40-60% of them were U.S.-born children. The lessons from that period show the severe humanitarian and social consequences of such large-scale deportations.

Deportation Trends and Recent Data

Between January 2023 and April 2024, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reported that 2.26 million immigrants had crossed the U.S. border. Of these, some were detained and then released on bond, parole, or under orders of supervision. It’s important to note that this figure does not include individuals who overstayed their visas, which is a separate category of undocumented immigration.

The Cost of Deportation

If the U.S. were to deport 1 million undocumented immigrants annually, it would cost approximately $88 billion per year. The construction of new detention centers alone would account for the bulk of these costs. Deporting the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants would require hundreds of new detention centers and the construction of thousands of additional facilities, a process that could take over a decade to complete.

Feasibility of Mass Deportation

Several studies have concluded that mass deportation of undocumented immigrants is practically impossible. The costs are astronomical, the logistics are overwhelming, and the impact on the economy and society would be severe. Many experts believe that calls for mass deportation are nothing more than political rhetoric.

However, while mass deportation is unlikely, efforts to reduce undocumented immigration are not impossible. Strengthening border security and implementing long-term, multi-year strategies could gradually reduce the number of undocumented immigrants. This could include a mix of increased border surveillance, electronic entry-exit tracking systems, and more robust visa enforcement.

In summary, while President Trump’s rhetoric on mass deportation has heightened fear among undocumented immigrants, numerous logistical, financial, and legal hurdles make it unlikely. Instead, a more realistic approach to reducing illegal immigration would focus on border security, visa control, and comprehensive immigration reform.